NBA Western Conference finals: Mavericks vs. Warriors odds, Game 3 picks, prediction from expert on 88-34 roll

The Dallas Mavericks enter a virtual must-win spot on Sunday evening at home. The Mavericks trail the Golden State Warriors by a 2-0 margin in the Western Conference finals, with the series shifting to Dallas for Game 3. Andrew Wiggins (ankle) is listed as questionable for Golden State, with Gary Payton II (elbow), Andre Iguodala (back), and James Wiseman (knee) ruled out. Tim Hardaway Jr. (foot) remains out for Dallas.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Dallas. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Mavericks as 2.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 217.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Mavericks odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Warriors picks and NBA playoff predictions, you need to see what SportsLine expert Matt Severance has to say.

A well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005, Severance is on a stunning run: He is a blistering 88-34 his last 122 NBA money line picks, returning over $3,248 to $100 bettors during that span. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Severance has set his sights on Warriors vs. Mavericks, and just locked in his picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavericks vs. Warriors:

  • Warriors vs. Mavericks spread: Mavericks -2.5
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks over-under: 217.5 points
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks money line: Mavericks -150, Warriors +130
  • Warriors vs. Mavericks tickets: See tickets at StubHub
  • GSW: The Warriors are 7-6 against the spread in playoff games
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 9-6 against the spread in playoff games

Why the Warriors can cover

For all of the attention paid to Golden State’s electric offense, the Warriors are also stout on the defensive side. Golden State was No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating this season, giving up only 106.6 points per 100 possessions over an 82-game sample. The Warriors also ranked in the top three of the NBA in field goal percentage allowed, two-point percentage allowed, assists allowed, and 3-point percentage allowed, with top-eight marks in turnover creation, steals per game, defensive rebound rate, and points allowed in the paint. 

Dallas is strong in some categories, but the Mavericks finished squarely in the bottom third of the NBA in offensive rebound rate, assists, second-chance points, fast break points, and points in the paint this season. Golden State also has tremendous bonafides in this series, giving up only 31.0 points in the paint per game and securing 82.2 percent of available defensive rebounds. The Warriors are also giving up less than 1.1 points per possession in the playoffs, and opponents are shooting less than 44 percent from the field against Golden State.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Dallas is a stout defensive team, ranking in the top eight of the NBA in overall efficiency during the regular season and leading the league in 3-pointers allowed. In the postseason, the Mavericks are allowing even fewer triples (9.9 per game), and Dallas is excellent in transition, limiting opponents to only 8.5 fast break points per game. Golden State has issues with ball security, ranking No. 29 in the NBA in turnover rate during the regular season and giving the ball away on 15.8 percent of possessions in the playoffs. 

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On the other end, Dallas is tremendous in avoiding turnovers, committing only 10.6 giveaways in the playoffs after a top-three mark in the NBA this season. The Mavericks also own a 58.1 percent true shooting mark in the playoffs, headlined by 37.9 percent from 3-point range during the postseason run. Dallas is led by a true superstar in Luka Doncic, fresh off a 42-point, eight-assist effort in Game 2. Doncic is putting up 31.4 points, 9.4 rebounds and 6.5 assists per game in the playoffs, and he is a clear X-factor for Dallas.

How to make Warriors vs. Mavericks picks

For Game 3 of the Western Conference finals, Severance is leaning under on the point total, but he also says a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. He’s only sharing what it is, and which side of the Mavericks vs. Warriors spread to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the expert who has crushed his NBA picks, and find out. 

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